Whoever ultimately wins, the Presidential election being this close means Trump severely under performed, since the structural factors were all in his favor.

First, he’s an incumbent, which carries massive advantages. Since 1900 the only presidents with a “normal” cycle of winning an election then running for re-election who lost their second term bids were Herbert Hoover (3rd Republican in a row, presided over the great depression), Jimmy Carter, and Bush 41.

Second, it’s still the economy, stupid. Trump came in with a growing economy which grew by ever increasing rates during his term up until the virus hit — something he can’t really be blamed for. And even with the virus, in September 56% of Americans told Gallup that they were better off then than 4 years prior. Reagan, Clinton, Bush 43, and Obama all won reelection with positive answers from 44%, 50%, 47%, and 45%, respectively. …


D.S. Williams

Army vet and practicing Attorney, with a B.A in Political Science.

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